Stories Inside the Man Cave
Stories Inside the Man Cave
Deadly Texas Floods: Lessons from Flash Flood Alley
A devastating flood in the Texas Hill Country has taken over 80 lives including young girls from Camp Mystic, raising questions about warning systems in these dangerous flash flood zones. The slow-moving tropical weather system combined with the unique geography of "Flash Flood Alley" created catastrophic conditions despite meteorologists' warnings days before.
• The Texas Hill Country's unique geography creates dangerous flash flooding conditions with multiple river systems prone to rapid rises
• Meteorologist Rick Mitchell explains the perfect storm of conditions: high pressure, a strong low-level jet, and a subtle disturbance creating stationary storms
• Four inches of rainfall alone can cause significant flooding, but some areas received 10+ inches in a short period
• Weather radios and river alarm systems could provide better warnings than text alerts, especially for camps where cell phones aren't allowed
• First responders, volunteers, and Texas-based HEB grocery stores have been instrumental in rescue and recovery efforts
• Political blame games and conspiracy theories distract from supporting victims and improving safety systems
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Speaker 2:I am Sean Clinch, the host of this podcast. I am Sean Clinch, the host of this podcast and we're going to step away from the usual sports or sports-centric theme, because what everyone is talking about is what has occurred here in the Texas Hill Country over the last three days. I can speak for myself, I can speak for everybody Mentally and emotionally exhausted. That describes most Texans and many across the country who have followed the story involving the epic flood in the Texas Hill Country, which has taken over 80 lives, including young girls from Camp Mystic, which is located near Kerrville, texas, in Kerr County. Yet there are people who have revealed their vile feelings, ridiculous and political opinions instead of respecting those mourning the loss of lives from this tragedy. How did this happen? Let's talk about it Flash flood alley.
Speaker 2:In Texas, we call it the hill country, the area of sharp rises in elevation hills and valleys which begins on the balconies escarpment. The western side of Austin, where I am, is where it truly begins. It's a flood-prone area and the area is known for its weather and climate extremes droughts and drought-busting rainfalls and more often than not, unfortunately, these droughts end with multiple days of storms or a tropical storm. The Concho River in San Angelo, the Guadalupe River, pertinalis, comal, the Colorado River, san Gabriel, llano, san Saba and Frio Rivers and the multiple tributaries which feed into these rivers all play a factor in this flash flooding in the Texas Hill Country, all of which dump into larger reservoirs, lakes, as most of us call them. The Guadalupe empties into Canyon Lake, the guadalupe empties into canyon lake, the guadalupe empties into canyon lake on the north side of the lake, and the river continues on the south side and goes all the way to the gulf coast. Now the colorado river has a complex series of dams managed by the lcra, the, the Lower Colorado River Authority, a series of dam lakes beginning with Lake Buchanan to the northwest of Austin, inks Lake below that, then Lake LBJ, marble Falls Lake, travis Lake, austin and Town Lake, then Bastrop Lake downstream. Now Lake LBJ is a constant level lake in between dam systems, as is Lake Austin and Town Lake, which is created by Longhorn Dam on the east side of Austin, texas.
Speaker 2:Now Lake Travis is the bowl, or the big flood control lake, which has a high capacity to hold floodwaters and is formed by Mansfield Dam. Now that you have a better understanding of the topography, of how all this works and all the drainage systems and where all of this water goes, when we do have rain events, storm events, you know it can flood quickly and due to the slow-moving storm system which hovered over the Hill Country the past few days, almost a week here's something to put in perspective In a week, lake Travis has gone from 43% full to 64% to capacity, which is 681 feet of elevation. The high end when it is full is 681 feet of elevation. The high end when it is full and which has the part, the time frame that I remember that happening the most was December of 1991. It's reached that since, but we are currently been in a drought with a normal than wet pattern late spring, early summer so far.
Speaker 2:Now, how did this happen, this tragic event? What happened was a slow, moving low pressure system, tropical in nature, and rick mitchell, the chief meteorologist of kxas in the dallas fort worth tv market. Well, he explained it fast. I saw this video from him on instagram. Rick was the chief meteorologist at koco, the absc affiliate in okc, while I worked for fox 25 in oklahoma city what were the meteorological conditions that led to this catastrophic flooding in central texas on thursday night?
Speaker 3:friday? Let's take a look. Okay, texas was under all of last week. Texas was under a ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere. You know we're talking 25,000 feet. The ridge was centered just to our east, over Louisiana, which meant the circulation around it was drawing in high level moisture. That's why last week was so cloudy, showery from time to time.
Speaker 3:Some interesting things happened. On thursday, though, the first which of which was thursday evening, a strong low-level jet developed, that's, winds at about 5 000 feet and that transported in low level high, abundant tropical moisture. At the same time, on thursday, a little weakness in the ridge had developed over the lubbock area, and that was moving southeast. All of these ingredients came together over central texas in an area that is known for flash flooding very dangerous area. Some people have called it the flash flooding capital of texas but all of that came together.
Speaker 3:That little disturbance developed over lubbock was barely notable on the weather maps. Okay, you had to be very uh, looking at it with a very keen eye to even see that it was there. So this was not something that was highly advertised. Yes, we assumed it would be wet, but the combination of that disturbance with the strong low-level jet provided these thunderstorms that barely moved and that's how you got 10 inches of rain in a very short period of time, in some cases even more than 10 inches of rain. So you know, as meteorologists we continue to live and learn. We look at events, we study those events. Try to put it in here so that if we see those conditions coming together, we let you know. All right, thanks for listening.
Speaker 2:Rick explained it best in a way that all of us can better understand what exactly happened. It's an alignment of trigger mechanisms for basically a slow moving or stationary storm system and the remnants of tropical storm Barry, which made landfall in Mexico on June 29th. Now the storm dumped a tremendous amount of rainfall for quite a few days in the Texas Hill Country and including here in Austin, and this water steamrolled down the hills and into the valleys, into the streams and eventually into the rivers I mentioned earlier. The Guadalupe River is notorious for violent flash floods. It has a history. In fact, a similar situation that just happened, like what just happened, occurred in 1987 in which lives were lost, involving a youth summer camp and a bus trying to transport the kiddos out of harm's way, going through a little water crossing system and a wave of water um was the culprit there. Very sad, I remember that. I remember the rescuing for the helicopters and the national guard coming in. But there's a long history, dating back as far as records could that were taken, you know, in the early 20th century, you know. And on the night of July 3rd, over 16 inches of rain fell in Mason County, which is the northern part of the hill country and think about that and each of the streams eventually pouring into the Guadalupe and its two forks, a tremendous destructive wall of water formed, similar to that in 2015 on the Blanco River, which tragically took the lives of so many in Wimberley who were in cabins near the Blanco River. Except, what happened the early morning of July 4th was much worse. I was there in Wimberley the day after that tragic flood. I'll never forget it. I'll never forget what I saw. I'll never forget the conversations with the locals there and the families, some of them affected. It was a dark experience and extremely moving.
Speaker 2:There's been so much criticism of the national weather service and the blame game, especially on social media. Stop it, stop with all that nonsense. The national weather service in san antonio and san angelo did a tremendous job, as well as meteorologists in Austin, san Antonio and the DFW TV markets. There were projections two, I think, two to three days prior of up to four to eight inches in that part of the hill country where Kerrville is, where the Guadalupe River watershed is located. The criticism of the National Weather Service and the politicizing of it all is all disgraceful. Four inches of rainfall just four inches of rainfall in the Texas hill country can cause significant flash flooding. I know this because I was born and raised in Austin and stayed at several places around the Texas Hill Country and I have visited these same places since my return to Austin after two decades. When I returned about 13 years ago. It's dangerous, but it's part of our culture, it's part of the topography, it's just part of where we live. Flash flood alley. No one could have predicted the amount of rain that was isolated in certain areas.
Speaker 2:The National Weather Service and NOAA sent out multiple alerts through text alert systems and through media, meaning radio and TV. The problem is we as a society have become dismissive of texting alerts. I'm guilty of that. There's so many texting alerts. If anything, this proves that the cuts to the National Weather Service's offices on the horizon are not warranted and they need to be avoided Seriously. I mean that no cuts should happen to the National Weather Service, especially after what happened. But that did not affect what occurred with this storm and this flooding event. The National Weather Service did a hell of a job. That office based out of San Antonio and San Angelo.
Speaker 2:What is an alternate way of alerting campers, residents and those vacationing in homes along Hill Country Rivers Weather radios. I know it sounds archaic, but they work. I have one, I have one. They should have weather radios in each of those cabins or Airbnbs whatnot? Because those emit an annoying yet alarming notification. I had to have one when I was living in Oklahoma City because sound when any severe weather or an emergent situation, such as a major flooding event, is about to occur, to get you out of harm's way. Now, keep in mind the campers, such as Camp Mystic. You're not allowed to have digital devices or cell phones, so those alerts were not going to be received unless the camp counselors or owners of the property had those in their possession. You know. The only other alternative are alarm systems along these rivers, in the hill country where camps and vacation homes are located, and for the residents of these communities. This would alert when a certain water level or flooding is headed downstream, to allow more time for evacuation. I mean, I believe those do exist on parts of the Perton Allis river and those were, if I remember correctly, were being discussed, or a plan for them to be implemented, to be installed along the Blanco River after that tragic flood in 2015.
Speaker 2:So the question I have is us, a human nature, do we ever learn from these events. The hard fact, the sad fact is, as I'm talking right now, over 80 people are dead and answers are deserved and plans moving forward are deserved, especially by the families affected. Which leads me to the press conferences by the Kerr County leadership, the governor and other positions of leadership. We see this all the time after something like this and I've been a part of these type of pressers Enough with the hand-jobbing and the thanking each other. Just take accountability and the thanking each other. Just take accountability. Be a leader. Deliver the concise information, be human, be real and acknowledge the families which are mourning.
Speaker 2:I can't imagine being a parent and not knowing where my child is, if he or she is alive or stuck in a tree or is lost in the dark somewhere in a river, clinging on to something for dear life. Avoid the blaming. Solid leadership delivers updated information and a plan and articulating that I get it. Leadership in these situations is a tough job. I don't envy any of them in that position, but as a leader, you have to speak to your audience instead of the media and not blaming the media for any of this whatsoever.
Speaker 2:Having said that, the real MVPs are the first responders and volunteers. Having said that, the real MVPs are the first responders and volunteers. First responder teams are comprised of sheriff's departments, local police departments, texas Parks and Wildlife, game wardens and DPS Sacrificing their lives to rescue and recover and cleaning up dangerous debris and venomous snakes and wildlife within this debris. And all of the volunteers. I know of three and I would be there in a heartbeat to help my fellow Texans.
Speaker 2:There's a lot of people to be thankful for, because there has been a tremendous response, tremendous response from people who have no ties to this, just doing it out of the goodness of their hearts, because they care about people, care about Texas. Let's not forget about the other communities affected by the flooding event on other rivers and tributaries Leander, liberty Hill, lago Vista, hunt, ingram, san Angelo, bertram, georgetown, to name a few. It's a broad area with missing people as we speak and people who have lost their lives in these areas, and not to mention all the property damage. I mean. Take, for example, the San Gabriel River, which flows underneath the Austin Avenue Bridge in Georgetown. I've seen flooding events there, but what we saw July 4th and July 5th?
Speaker 2:when all the water made its way downstream. I had never seen anything anything remotely close to that, especially on the San Gabriel and on the Llano Rivers. Nothing like that. And I'm not one to exaggerate, I'm just trying to be objective, to the point and kind of relaying the feelings how we all feel. It's sad and, honestly, no one is at fault for this. This is all Mother Nature and with where we live. But we do need to improve flood alarm systems and funding for such systems Period Point blank. Take, for example, in 1981, the Memorial Day flood I was seven, going on eight the Memorial Day flood here in Austin. It was a storm system which sat on Austin that Sunday night. I mean it dumped I can't remember how many inches of rain flooded Shoal Creek to a point where it was a river. Go down Shoal Creek Boulevard and Lamar Boulevard in Austin. This had become a major river. Northwest Park, which is known as Sheffield Park, was a part of a river, destroyed billions of dollars of homes, businesses my late father's business whom he was a leader of, destroyed cars I just remember it and it just was a tremendous amount of damage. And what was the response? They rebuilt areas with flood control and flood alarm systems notifying digitally and for the reaction of the authorities to make decisions.
Speaker 2:But personally, the one part that I hate about this what has happened? It's bad enough that we've lost lives. Personally, I've witnessed and noticed pure ignorance on social media and out in public, with some people taking political jabs and placing blame and this is the part I don't understand that some people have placed on social media, pressed, send on this and thought it was okay to do this, that the state of Texas deserves what we have because of political indifferences or differences. That's pure ignorance and you look like an idiot and, quite honestly, it's disrespectful to the families of those whose loved ones who are no longer with us or are missing. Stop with the conspiracy theories as well. This is insane. There's nothing positive about this. Nothing, absolutely nothing. Instead of creating more division and creating absurd narratives, find a way to not only clean but save lives or recover loved ones.
Speaker 2:Now I mentioned the real MVPs. Heb is another MVP. That Texas-based grocery store chain embodies what Texans are all about and once again, heb's presence at the sites are the site of a natural disaster. To feed, treat and support communities affected. Affected at this flooding event. The HEV's there Medication, treatment, feeding and creating something positive for these communities and those affected by the floods. It's amazing what this grocery store chain does time and time again. They are more reliable, more organized than FEMA or anything government related, and trustworthy. Texans are resilient. We all hurt for these young people who lost their lives and their families and every one of their friends. Let's all do our part, whether it be prayers, contributing in some form or volunteering and speaking of. I posted info on the stories inside the man Cave Twitter slash X site with a link to an organization in Kerr County in which you can donate or contribute to or find out information on how you can help Texans. Helping Texans it's always good to talk about it, thank you.